Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.107257 0.125279 0.146066 0.171971 0.203601 0.241240 0.289825
2025-10-12 0.086480 0.109405 0.138564 0.178949 0.234349 0.309062 0.419855
2025-10-19 0.070582 0.095519 0.130016 0.182488 0.262611 0.384403 0.591941
2025-10-26 0.058625 0.084237 0.122455 0.185886 0.293247 0.477156 0.839581
2025-11-02 0.047885 0.072427 0.111537 0.181703 0.312265 0.562934 1.134280
2025-11-09 0.038761 0.061237 0.099141 0.171965 0.319617 0.635082 1.464571
2025-11-16 0.033342 0.055023 0.093734 0.173577 0.350929 0.777183 2.099458
2025-11-23 0.028876 0.049565 0.088493 0.174284 0.382325 0.944587 3.020218
2025-11-30 0.025625 0.045684 0.085393 0.178867 0.426784 1.185527 4.591276
2025-12-07 0.022800 0.042067 0.082028 0.182076 0.471283 1.473387 7.011709
2025-12-14 0.019833 0.037618 0.075932 0.176872 0.490766 1.703831 9.850214
2025-12-21 0.016545 0.031955 0.065989 0.158761 0.461953 1.726677 11.533426
2025-12-28 0.014966 0.029751 0.063742 0.161684 0.509352 2.162899 18.840093
2026-01-04 0.013826 0.028314 0.063035 0.169135 0.581131 2.854781 34.625925
2026-01-11 0.012667 0.026628 0.061353 0.173263 0.645702 3.659090 63.505496
2026-01-18 0.011642 0.025083 0.059705 0.177145 0.715529 4.702611 123.461017
2026-01-25 0.010495 0.023049 0.056290 0.173748 0.749690 5.593058 217.962910
2026-02-01 0.009333 0.020800 0.051815 0.164941 0.750026 6.211307 346.724160
2026-02-08 0.008637 0.019632 0.050236 0.166826 0.816437 7.870971 793.207702
2026-02-15 0.007996 0.018509 0.048555 0.167789 0.881301 9.900880 2006.347109
2026-02-22 0.007513 0.017729 0.047774 0.172412 0.979972 13.172461 7294.447685
2026-03-01 0.007048 0.016927 0.046751 0.175687 1.076782 17.336104 36142.555105
2026-03-08 0.006472 0.015733 0.044198 0.170863 1.105105 20.357448 161580.432444